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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed optimism about a more pro-crypto Congress following the upcoming election, regardless of the outcome. He criticized the current administration's approach to crypto regulation, highlighting a need for a reset and encouraging fintech startups to incorporate outside the U.S. Garlinghouse also endorsed John Deaton, who is challenging Sen. Elizabeth Warren, known for her critical stance on the crypto industry.
A French trader has placed over $28 million in bets on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election through four Polymarket accounts, all controlled by the same individual. Despite scrutiny, Polymarket found no evidence of market manipulation, emphasizing that prediction markets reflect event likelihood rather than voter intent. The trader has also wagered over $7 million on Trump winning the popular vote against Kamala Harris, while political betting markets gain prominence in the election cycle.
Stéphane Rossini, head of the Federal Social Insurance Office, resigns after a significant miscalculation of AHV forecasts, remaining until June 2025. Meanwhile, a Federal Supreme Court ruling threatens weekend and evening services at health facilities, and tensions rise as North Korean soldiers are invited to support Russia in Ukraine. In the U.S., Kamala Harris and Donald Trump engage in fierce pre-election attacks, while Turkey responds to an attack on an arms manufacturer with airstrikes against PKK targets.
Coinbase shares are experiencing heightened demand amid uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election, with investors favoring a potential Trump presidency due to his crypto-friendly stance. Recent data shows a surprising drop in weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits, which may positively influence market sentiment. The technical outlook suggests that overcoming the $220 mark could lead to further gains, while a fall below $200 might intensify downward pressure.
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With less than two weeks until the election, a CNBC survey shows a statistical dead heat between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump leading 48%-46% nationally. Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, with Trump holding significant advantages on inflation and the economy, while Harris leads on issues like abortion and climate change. Despite a modest improvement in perceptions of the economy, three-quarters of Americans still feel prices are rising, reflecting ongoing economic anxiety.
The potential deportation of millions of undocumented migrants could harm the U.S. economy by reducing productivity and filling labor market gaps. Economists warn that protectionist policies, such as tariffs proposed by Trump, may disrupt complex global supply chains and ultimately slow economic growth. Emphasizing the importance of diversity and inclusion, experts argue that migrants are often valuable contributors to the economy, regardless of their legal status.
Wall Street is increasingly anxious as the race tightens between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with projections suggesting Trump could secure a majority in Congress. This potential shift raises concerns over corporate tax cuts and increased national debt, which could lead to rising inflation and disrupt the Federal Reserve's policies. Consequently, bond yields are climbing, signaling investor unease as the favorable trend in stock prices may be at risk.
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The ASX 200 is up 9 points (0.14%) at 8227 after recovering from a morning dip to a two-week low of 8183.6, driven by buying in major banks and the property sector as US debt concerns linger. The IT sector continues to decline, with Wisetech Global leading losses, while Fortescue's production update shows an 11% drop in iron ore shipments.
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The upcoming US election poses significant implications for markets, with a Trump victory likely leading to US equity outperformance and potential tariff risks, while a Harris win could favor emerging markets. A Republican sweep may drive yields higher due to increased deficits, despite a healthy economy. Overall, risk assets are expected to perform well in 2024, regardless of the election outcome.
The upcoming US Presidential election presents various scenarios impacting the economy and markets. A Republican Sweep could lead to significant fiscal expansion and potential inflationary pressures, while a Harris win with divided government may maintain the status quo, resulting in neutral fiscal impulses. Regardless of the outcome, a healthy macro backdrop suggests that equities are likely to perform well, with international markets benefiting from reduced tariff risks.
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